Division 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Poland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Termalica B-B. (26%), Lechia Gdansk (25%), Grodzisk M. (16%). 65 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Termalica B-B. | 11 | 20 | 5850–66 | 26% | 45 from 23 (1.96/game) |
| Lechia Gdansk | 11 | 19 | 5850–66 | 25% | 46 from 23 (2.00/game) |
| Grodzisk M. | 11 | 21 | 5648–64 | 16% | 44 from 23 (1.91/game) |
| Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 21 | 5446–62 | 9% | 44 from 22 (2.00/game) |
| LKS Lodz | 11 | 18 | 5446–61 | 8% | 47 from 23 (2.04/game) |
| Ruch Chorzow | 11 | 18 | 5345–61 | 7% | 47 from 23 (2.04/game) |
| Legnica | 12 | 18 | 5143–59 | 4% | 47 from 22 (2.14/game) |
| Arka Gdynia | 11 | 11 | 4940–56 | 2% | 54 from 23 (2.35/game) |
| Polonia Bytom | 11 | 15 | 4840–56 | 2% | 50 from 23 (2.17/game) |
Below 1%: Warta Poznan, S. Rzeszow, Chrobry Glogow, Puszcza, Odra Opole, Pogon Siedlce, Podbeskidzie, Stal Mielec, Skierniewice.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 206 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).