Puszcza vs LKS Lodz
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
WLLLW
DDWLLThe score model made an LKS Lodz win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Puszcza 1.16 – 1.21 LKS Lodz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puszcza win | 33.7% | 28.0% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 28.7% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| LKS Lodz win | 36.5% | 43.4% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 47.5% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 27.1% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 52.4% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 32.9% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Puszcza 29 / LKS Lodz 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.