Polonia Bytom vs Podbeskidzie
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-06 · 17:00 CET
DDDDW
LDDDWThe score model made a Polonia Bytom win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Polonia Bytom 2.19 – 1.40 Podbeskidzie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Bytom win | 54.9% | 39.7% | +15.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 26.6% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Podbeskidzie win | 23.7% | 33.7% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | 56.5% | +13.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.2% | 36.2% | +12.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | 60.2% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.7% | 38.6% | +14.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Polonia Bytom 27.3 / Podbeskidzie 13.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.