Arka Gdynia vs LKS Lodz
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-06 · 14:30 CET
DDLLL
DDWLLThe score model made an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 1.50 – 1.02 LKS Lodz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia win | 47.7% | 43.1% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.6% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| LKS Lodz win | 25.1% | 29.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 50.3% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 29.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 54.7% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.8% | 34.5% | +7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arka Gdynia 23.7 / LKS Lodz 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.