Stal Mielec vs Odra Opole
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-05 · 15:30 CET
LLDLL
DDDLLThe score model made a Stal Mielec win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stal Mielec 1.45 – 1.25 Odra Opole.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec win | 41.2% | 42.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 28.7% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Odra Opole win | 31.9% | 29.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 45.7% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 25.5% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 52.3% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 32.3% | +2.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stal Mielec 27.3 / Odra Opole 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.