S. Rzeszow vs Polonia Warszawa
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-05 · 15:30 CET
LWWWW
LLDWWThe score model made a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: S. Rzeszow 1.39 – 1.71 Polonia Warszawa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rzeszow win | 30.8% | 28.7% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.0% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Polonia Warszawa win | 44.6% | 45.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 59.0% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 38.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.7% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 40.5% | -8.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: S. Rzeszow 45.4 / Polonia Warszawa 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.