Viking vs Kristiansund
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-13 · 14:30 CET
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WLLLLThe score model made a Viking win the most likely outcome at 79%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 8:1 (HT 5:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viking 2.74 – 0.76 Kristiansund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking win | 78.7% | 70.9% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 13.4% | 16.6% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Kristiansund win | 7.9% | 12.5% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | 68.9% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.4% | 48.7% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 57.0% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 48.0% | -6.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viking 40.5 / Kristiansund 37.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Viking vs Kristiansund in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.