Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctBiggest divergence
Aalesund – Sandefjord+9.3%
Away win · data 39% vs market 30%
Fastest starters
Viking27%
17 of their 62 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Brann33%
14 of their 42 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points37.6%
the model's side won 37.6% of 652 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+0.5%HT Over 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +0.5% at market prices across 192 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-8.6 ptsBrann produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
46%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Aalesund – Sandefjord2026-10-31 17:00Away winModel 39.2%Implied 29.9%▲ +9.3%- Brann – Molde2026-11-01 13:30Home winModel 43.0%Implied 35.3%▲ +7.7%
- Sarpsborg 08 – Kristiansund2026-11-01 16:00FT U3.5Model 65.3%Implied 57.8%▲ +7.5%
- Fredrikstad – Rosenborg2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 32.9%Implied 26.4%▲ +6.5%
- Start – Lillestrom2026-11-01 16:00Away winModel 46.1%Implied 43.3%▲ +2.8%
- Bodo/Glimt – Viking2026-10-30 18:00FT U3.5Model 53.0%Implied 51.0%▲ +2.0%
- KFUM Oslo – HamKam2026-11-01 16:00BTTS: NoModel 46.0%Implied 46.3%-0.3%
- Valerenga – Tromso2026-11-01 18:15Away winModel 38.0%Implied 39.4%-1.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aalesund– Sandefjord | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | Away win | 39.2% | 29.9% | ▲ +9.3% | 3.35 |
| 2 |  Brann– Molde | 2026-11-01 | 13:30 | Home win | 43.0% | 35.3% | ▲ +7.7% | 2.83 |
| 3 |  Sarpsborg 08– Kristiansund | 2026-11-01 | 16:00 | FT U3.5 | 65.3% | 57.8% | ▲ +7.5% | 1.73 |
| 4 |  Fredrikstad– Rosenborg | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 32.9% | 26.4% | ▲ +6.5% | 3.79 |
| 5 |  Start– Lillestrom | 2026-11-01 | 16:00 | Away win | 46.1% | 43.3% | ▲ +2.8% | 2.31 |
| 6 |  Bodo/Glimt– Viking | 2026-10-30 | 18:00 | FT U3.5 | 53.0% | 51.0% | ▲ +2.0% | 1.96 |
| 7 |  KFUM Oslo– HamKam | 2026-11-01 | 16:00 | BTTS: No | 46.0% | 46.3% | -0.3% | 2.16 |
| 8 |  Valerenga– Tromso | 2026-11-01 | 18:15 | Away win | 38.0% | 39.4% | -1.4% | 2.54 |
Add Eliteserien fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Eliteserien schedule 10,000 times a day. Viking win the 2026 title in 63% of them, projecting ~70 points; Bodo/Glimt are next at 37%. At the other end, Start finish in the bottom three in 98% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 59 | 70 | 67–74 | 63% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 56 | 69 | 65–72 | 37% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Rosenborg | 40 | 51 | 47–55 | — | 69% | — |
| 4 | Molde | 43 | 51 | 47–55 | — | 68% | — |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 39 | 49 | 44–52 | — | 31% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Aalesund | 24 | 29 | 25–33 | — | — | 65% |
| 15 | Kristiansund | 20 | 26 | 22–30 | — | — | 93% |
| 16 | Start | 19 | 25 | 21–28 | — | — | 98% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 48 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/norway/eliteserien/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Eliteserien live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/norway/eliteserien">Eliteserien stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Eliteserien match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Over 1.5▲ +0.5%
at market prices · 192 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Eliteserien, 2026: across 192 matches the market's prices paid out +0.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −1.5%
at market prices · 192 matcheschart →
Home wins in Eliteserien, 2026: across 192 matches the market's prices paid out −1.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −7.3%
at market prices · 192 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Eliteserien, 2026: across 192 matches the market's prices paid out −7.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −11.8%
at market prices · 192 matcheschart →
Away wins in Eliteserien, 2026: across 192 matches the market's prices paid out −11.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −12.8%
at market prices · 192 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Eliteserien, 2026: across 192 matches the market's prices paid out −12.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −13.0%
at market prices · 192 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Eliteserien, 2026: across 192 matches the market's prices paid out −13.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −23.1%
at market prices · 192 matcheschart →
Draws in Eliteserien, 2026: across 192 matches the market's prices paid out −23.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 59 | 47.5 | +11.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 56 | 55.4 | +0.6 | |
| 3 | Molde | 43 | 40.9 | +2.1 | |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 40 | 35.4 | +4.6 | |
| 5 | Tromso | 40 | 39.3 | +0.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Aalesund | 24 | 26.7 | -2.7 | |
| 15 | Kristiansund | 20 | 21.2 | -1.2 | |
| 16 | Start | 19 | 24.9 | -5.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+