Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
KFUM Oslo – Valerenga+11.2%
Home win · data 48% vs market 36%
Fastest starters
Viking28%
15 of their 54 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Lillestrom32%
9 of their 28 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points37.6%
the model's side won 37.6% of 652 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+2.5%Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +2.5% at market prices across 168 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-6.5 ptsValerenga produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
45%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 24.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
KFUM Oslo – Valerenga2026-10-12 17:00Home winModel 47.7%Implied 36.5%▲ +11.2%- Rosenborg – Sandefjord2026-10-10 16:00FT U3.5Model 67.0%Implied 57.1%▲ +9.9%
- Lillestrom – Molde2026-10-11 17:15FT U3.5Model 63.7%Implied 54.1%▲ +9.7%
- Start – HamKam2026-10-11 15:00Away winModel 36.0%Implied 28.3%▲ +7.7%
- Bodo/Glimt – Kristiansund2026-10-10 14:00Under 1.5 HTModel 49.3%Implied 42.0%▲ +7.3%
- Fredrikstad – Tromso2026-10-11 12:30Under 2.5Model 56.0%Implied 51.3%▲ +4.7%
- Aalesund – Sarpsborg 082026-10-11 15:00Over 1.5 HTModel 53.3%Implied 48.8%▲ +4.5%
- Brann – Viking2026-10-09 17:00Home winModel 34.6%Implied 34.6%▲ +0.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KFUM Oslo– Valerenga | 2026-10-12 | 17:00 | Home win | 47.7% | 36.5% | ▲ +11.2% | 2.74 |
| 2 |  Rosenborg– Sandefjord | 2026-10-10 | 16:00 | FT U3.5 | 67.0% | 57.1% | ▲ +9.9% | 1.75 |
| 3 |  Lillestrom– Molde | 2026-10-11 | 17:15 | FT U3.5 | 63.7% | 54.1% | ▲ +9.7% | 1.85 |
| 4 |  Start– HamKam | 2026-10-11 | 15:00 | Away win | 36.0% | 28.3% | ▲ +7.7% | 3.53 |
| 5 |  Bodo/Glimt– Kristiansund | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 49.3% | 42.0% | ▲ +7.3% | 2.38 |
| 6 |  Fredrikstad– Tromso | 2026-10-11 | 12:30 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 51.3% | ▲ +4.7% | 1.95 |
| 7 |  Aalesund– Sarpsborg 08 | 2026-10-11 | 15:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 53.3% | 48.8% | ▲ +4.5% | 2.05 |
| 8 |  Brann– Viking | 2026-10-09 | 17:00 | Home win | 34.6% | 34.6% | ▲ +0.0% | 2.89 |
Add Eliteserien fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Eliteserien schedule 10,000 times a day. Bodo/Glimt win the 2026 title in 74% of them, projecting ~71 points; Viking are next at 26%. At the other end, Start finish in the bottom three in 93% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 50 | 71 | 66–75 | 74% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Viking | 50 | 67 | 63–72 | 26% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Tromso | 38 | 51 | 46–55 | — | 69% | — |
| 4 | Molde | 36 | 49 | 44–54 | — | 57% | — |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 33 | 48 | 43–53 | — | 49% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 30 | 25–34 | — | — | 62% |
| 15 | Kristiansund | 19 | 28 | 24–33 | — | — | 76% |
| 16 | Start | 16 | 25 | 21–30 | — | — | 93% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 72 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/norway/eliteserien/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Eliteserien live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/norway/eliteserien">Eliteserien stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Eliteserien match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +2.5%
at market prices · 168 matcheschart →
Home wins in Eliteserien, 2026: across 168 matches the market's prices paid out +2.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −2.4%
at market prices · 168 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Eliteserien, 2026: across 168 matches the market's prices paid out −2.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −7.6%
at market prices · 168 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Eliteserien, 2026: across 168 matches the market's prices paid out −7.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −11.1%
at market prices · 168 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Eliteserien, 2026: across 168 matches the market's prices paid out −11.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −11.6%
at market prices · 168 matcheschart →
Away wins in Eliteserien, 2026: across 168 matches the market's prices paid out −11.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −11.8%
at market prices · 168 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Eliteserien, 2026: across 168 matches the market's prices paid out −11.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −25.3%
at market prices · 168 matcheschart →
Draws in Eliteserien, 2026: across 168 matches the market's prices paid out −25.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 50 | 41.4 | +8.6 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 50 | 47.7 | +2.3 | |
| 3 | Tromso | 38 | 35.0 | +3.0 | |
| 4 | Molde | 36 | 35.2 | +0.8 | |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 33 | 29.8 | +3.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 22.7 | -1.7 | |
| 15 | Kristiansund | 19 | 18.1 | +0.9 | |
| 16 | Start | 16 | 20.9 | -4.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+