The season in numbers
Even the best blind strategy (home wins) lost this season. The bookmaker margin is undefeated.
Start produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 24.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →KFUM Oslo – Aalesund2026-09-13 15:00
Home win55.1%vs 42.4%▲ +12.7%Rosenborg – Tromso2026-09-12 16:00
Away win ✓29.9%vs 22.0%▲ +7.9%HamKam – Molde2026-09-13 15:00
Home win ✓31.8%vs 24.0%▲ +7.8%Bodo/Glimt – Sandefjord2026-09-14 17:00
FT U3.5 ✓55.0%vs 47.6%▲ +7.4%Fredrikstad – Sarpsborg 082026-09-13 17:15
Under 2.5 ✓53.8%vs 47.8%▲ +6.0%Start – Brann2026-09-13 15:00
Away win55.6%vs 50.3%▲ +5.4%Viking – Kristiansund2026-09-13 12:30
Under 1.5 HT ✓58.6%vs 55.2%▲ +3.4%Lillestrom – Valerenga2026-09-12 14:00
Away win30.1%vs 28.7%▲ +1.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KFUM Oslo– Aalesund | 2026-09-13 | 15:00 | Home win | 55.1% | 42.4% | ▲ +12.7% | 2.36 | |
| 2 | Rosenborg– Tromso | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | Away win ✓ | 29.9% | 22.0% | ▲ +7.9% | 4.55 | |
| 3 | HamKam– Molde | 2026-09-13 | 15:00 | Home win ✓ | 31.8% | 24.0% | ▲ +7.8% | 4.17 | |
| 4 | Bodo/Glimt– Sandefjord | 2026-09-14 | 17:00 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 55.0% | 47.6% | ▲ +7.4% | 2.10 | |
| 5 | Fredrikstad– Sarpsborg 08 | 2026-09-13 | 17:15 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 53.8% | 47.8% | ▲ +6.0% | 2.09 | |
| 6 | Start– Brann | 2026-09-13 | 15:00 | Away win | 55.6% | 50.3% | ▲ +5.4% | 1.99 | |
| 7 | Viking– Kristiansund | 2026-09-13 | 12:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 58.6% | 55.2% | ▲ +3.4% | 1.81 | |
| 8 | Lillestrom– Valerenga | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win | 30.1% | 28.7% | ▲ +1.5% | 3.49 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Eliteserien schedule 10,000 times a day. Bodo/Glimt win the 2026 title in 89% of them, projecting ~72 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Start finish in the bottom three in 96% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 47 | 72 | 67–77 | 89% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Viking | 44 | 65 | 60–70 | 11% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Tromso | 35 | 51 | 46–57 | — | 76% | — |
| 4 | Molde | 33 | 50 | 45–56 | — | 69% | — |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 27 | 45 | 40–51 | — | 24% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Kristiansund | 19 | 30 | 25–36 | — | — | 49% |
| 15 | Aalesund | 18 | 27 | 23–32 | — | — | 79% |
| 16 | Start | 13 | 23 | 18–28 | — | — | 96% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 88 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/norway/eliteserien/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Eliteserien live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/norway/eliteserien">Eliteserien stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Eliteserien match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 47 | 43.0 | +4.0 | |
| 2 | Viking | 44 | 36.5 | +7.5 | |
| 3 | Tromso | 35 | 32.0 | +3.0 | |
| 4 | Molde | 33 | 31.0 | +2.0 | |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 29 | 28.1 | +0.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | KFUM Oslo | 19 | 22.6 | -3.6 | |
| 15 | Aalesund | 18 | 20.8 | -2.8 | |
| 16 | Start | 13 | 18.8 | -5.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+
















