Eliteserien 2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Viking	19	44	36.5	+7.5Outperforming ++	2	+7.5	+0.0	5:0 vs Bodo/Glimt (+1.8)	1:0 vs Sarpsborg 08 (-2.0)
2	Fredrikstad	19	26	21.6	+4.4Outperforming	12	+3.8	+0.6	1:4 vs Lillestrom (+2.1)	2:0 vs Kristiansund (-1.5)
3	Bodo/Glimt	19	47	43.0	+4.0Outperforming	1	+2.0	+2.0	0:2 vs Lillestrom (+1.3)	0:1 vs Molde (-2.2)
4	HamKam	19	23	19.8	+3.2Outperforming	14	+5.6	-2.3	0:3 vs Valerenga (+2.2)	2:1 vs Fredrikstad (-1.0)
5	Tromso	19	35	32.0	+3.0Outperforming	3	+1.6	+1.3	1:2 vs Brann (+2.0)	0:5 vs Brann (-1.7)
6	Kristiansund	19	19	17.0	+2.0Outperforming	16	+4.8	-2.8	1:2 vs Lillestrom (+2.4)	1:2 vs Start (-1.5)
7	Molde	19	33	31.0	+2.0Outperforming	5	+3.2	-1.2	0:1 vs Bodo/Glimt (+2.4)	2:1 vs Kristiansund (-1.9)
8	Rosenborg	19	27	25.8	+1.2On expectation	8	+3.4	-2.2	0:2 vs Lillestrom (+1.7)	2:3 vs Aalesund (-2.0)
9	Lillestrom	19	29	28.1	+0.9On expectation	6	-3.4	+4.3	1:2 vs Brann (+2.0)	1:2 vs Kristiansund (-2.2)
10	Sarpsborg 08	19	24	23.4	+0.6On expectation	9	+2.0	-1.4	1:0 vs Viking (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sandefjord (-1.8)
11	Sandefjord	19	20	22.6	-2.6Underperforming	10	-3.4	+0.8	0:1 vs Brann (+2.2)	0:2 vs Sarpsborg 08 (-1.6)
12	Aalesund	19	18	20.8	-2.8Underperforming	13	-2.3	-0.5	2:3 vs Rosenborg (+2.2)	2:3 vs Fredrikstad (-1.4)
13	KFUM Oslo	19	19	22.6	-3.5Underperforming	11	+0.7	-4.3	0:1 vs Sandefjord (+1.8)	1:2 vs Sandefjord (-1.5)
14	Valerenga	19	22	26.7	-4.7Underperforming	7	-2.7	-2.0	2:3 vs Brann (+2.1)	0:3 vs HamKam (-2.0)
15	Brann	19	26	31.5	-5.5Underperforming −−	4	-4.3	-1.3	0:5 vs Tromso (+1.9)	3:2 vs Kristiansund (-2.0)
16	Start	19	13	18.8	-5.8Underperforming −−	15	-1.6	-4.2	1:2 vs Kristiansund (+1.8)	0:1 vs Fredrikstad (-1.7)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Viking	19	44	36.5	+7.5Outperforming ++	2	+7.5	+0.0	5:0 vs Bodo/Glimt (+1.8)	1:0 vs Sarpsborg 08 (-2.0)
2	Fredrikstad	19	26	21.6	+4.4Outperforming	12	+3.8	+0.6	1:4 vs Lillestrom (+2.1)	2:0 vs Kristiansund (-1.5)
3	Bodo/Glimt	19	47	43.0	+4.0Outperforming	1	+2.0	+2.0	0:2 vs Lillestrom (+1.3)	0:1 vs Molde (-2.2)
4	HamKam	19	23	19.8	+3.2Outperforming	14	+5.6	-2.3	0:3 vs Valerenga (+2.2)	2:1 vs Fredrikstad (-1.0)
5	Tromso	19	35	32.0	+3.0Outperforming	3	+1.6	+1.3	1:2 vs Brann (+2.0)	0:5 vs Brann (-1.7)
6	Kristiansund	19	19	17.0	+2.0Outperforming	16	+4.8	-2.8	1:2 vs Lillestrom (+2.4)	1:2 vs Start (-1.5)
7	Molde	19	33	31.0	+2.0Outperforming	5	+3.2	-1.2	0:1 vs Bodo/Glimt (+2.4)	2:1 vs Kristiansund (-1.9)
8	Rosenborg	19	27	25.8	+1.2On expectation	8	+3.4	-2.2	0:2 vs Lillestrom (+1.7)	2:3 vs Aalesund (-2.0)
9	Lillestrom	19	29	28.1	+0.9On expectation	6	-3.4	+4.3	1:2 vs Brann (+2.0)	1:2 vs Kristiansund (-2.2)
10	Sarpsborg 08	19	24	23.4	+0.6On expectation	9	+2.0	-1.4	1:0 vs Viking (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sandefjord (-1.8)
11	Sandefjord	19	20	22.6	-2.6Underperforming	10	-3.4	+0.8	0:1 vs Brann (+2.2)	0:2 vs Sarpsborg 08 (-1.6)
12	Aalesund	19	18	20.8	-2.8Underperforming	13	-2.3	-0.5	2:3 vs Rosenborg (+2.2)	2:3 vs Fredrikstad (-1.4)
13	KFUM Oslo	19	19	22.6	-3.5Underperforming	11	+0.7	-4.3	0:1 vs Sandefjord (+1.8)	1:2 vs Sandefjord (-1.5)
14	Valerenga	19	22	26.7	-4.7Underperforming	7	-2.7	-2.0	2:3 vs Brann (+2.1)	0:3 vs HamKam (-2.0)
15	Brann	19	26	31.5	-5.5Underperforming −−	4	-4.3	-1.3	0:5 vs Tromso (+1.9)	3:2 vs Kristiansund (-2.0)
16	Start	19	13	18.8	-5.8Underperforming −−	15	-1.6	-4.2	1:2 vs Kristiansund (+1.8)	0:1 vs Fredrikstad (-1.7)