KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-13 · 17:00 CET
LWWWD
WLWLWThe score model made a KFUM Oslo win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KFUM Oslo 1.96 – 1.20 Aalesund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFUM Oslo win | 55.3% | 38.7% | +16.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 25.1% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Aalesund win | 23.1% | 36.3% | -13.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 61.8% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.9% | 41.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 64.4% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 41.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KFUM Oslo 36.6 / Aalesund 19.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.