HamKam vs Molde
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-13 · 17:00 CET
LLLWL
WWLDWThe score model made a Molde win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:5 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HamKam 1.42 – 1.72 Molde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam win | 31.9% | 21.2% | +10.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 22.1% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Molde win | 44.9% | 56.7% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | 65.6% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.6% | 44.9% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | 63.0% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 44.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HamKam 40.8 / Molde 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open HamKam vs Molde in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.