Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-13 · 19:15 CET
LDDDL
DDLWLThe score model made a Fredrikstad win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.43 – 1.08 Sarpsborg 08.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad win | 45.2% | 38.3% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 26.8% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 28.6% | 34.9% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 55.4% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 34.1% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 59.0% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 37.7% | -0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fredrikstad 36.5 / Sarpsborg 08 40.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.