Rosenborg vs Tromso
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
LWWWD
DLLWDThe score model made a Rosenborg win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 5:3 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rosenborg 1.56 – 1.22 Tromso.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg win | 45.4% | 57.7% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 23.4% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Tromso win | 29.9% | 18.9% | +11.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 57.5% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 36.5% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 56.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 39.0% | -8.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rosenborg 40.6 / Tromso 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rosenborg vs Tromso in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.