Lillestrom vs Valerenga
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
LWWLD
LDLDLThe score model made a Lillestrom win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.91 – 1.48 Valerenga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom win | 48.0% | 47.4% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 24.1% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Valerenga win | 30.1% | 28.5% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 66.9% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.1% | 46.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 67.0% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 45.5% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lillestrom 26.8 / Valerenga 33.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lillestrom vs Valerenga in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.