Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-06 · 17:00 CET
DDDLW
LDLDLThe score model made a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 2.05 – 1.41 Valerenga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 52.4% | 48.7% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.1% | 23.4% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Valerenga win | 26.5% | 27.9% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | 67.4% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.6% | 47.4% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | 67.2% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.2% | 46.0% | +9.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sarpsborg 08 40.3 / Valerenga 33.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.