Molde vs KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-06 · 17:00 CET
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DLLWWThe score model made a Molde win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Molde 2.09 – 1.01 KFUM Oslo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde win | 62.3% | 72.5% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.1% | 16.4% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| KFUM Oslo win | 17.5% | 11.1% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 71.6% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 52.0% | -14.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 59.5% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.2% | 49.6% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Molde 40.1 / KFUM Oslo 36.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.