Rosenborg vs HamKam
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LWWWD
LDLLLThe score model made a Rosenborg win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rosenborg 1.94 – 1.06 HamKam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg win | 57.8% | 73.1% | -15.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 16.7% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| HamKam win | 20.6% | 10.2% | +10.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 65.4% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 44.9% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 52.7% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 44.6% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rosenborg 40.2 / HamKam 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.