Aalesund vs Start
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-04 · 19:00 CET
DLWLW
LWLWLThe score model made an Aalesund win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aalesund 2.09 – 1.56 Start.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund win | 50.2% | 45.3% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.7% | 24.2% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Start win | 29.1% | 30.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.7% | 63.4% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.7% | 42.6% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 69.2% | 65.3% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.0% | 43.2% | +8.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aalesund 19.3 / Start 15 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.