Kozakken Boys vs Rijnsburgse Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-12 · 15:00 CET
WDWWD
WLWLWThe score model made a Rijnsburgse Boys win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 6:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kozakken Boys 1.46 – 2.03 Rijnsburgse Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kozakken Boys win | 27.9% | 37.1% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 23.8% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Rijnsburgse Boys win | 50.9% | 39.2% | +11.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | 66.3% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.2% | 46.9% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | 68.2% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.8% | 46.8% | +0.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kozakken Boys 32.7 / Rijnsburgse Boys 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kozakken Boys vs Rijnsburgse Boys in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.