Barendrecht vs Hoek
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-12 · 15:00 CET
DWWLW
DLWLDThe score model made a Hoek win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barendrecht 1.38 – 2.04 Hoek.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barendrecht win | 25.9% | 30.9% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 23.0% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Hoek win | 52.9% | 46.1% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | 63.8% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.8% | 44.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 64.9% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 44.4% | -4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barendrecht 35.7 / Hoek 25.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Barendrecht vs Hoek in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.