AFC vs Hardenberg
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-12 · 15:15 CET
WLLWL
LLWDWThe score model made an AFC win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC 1.39 – 1.34 Hardenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC win | 38.6% | 33.8% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.4% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Hardenberg win | 35.9% | 40.8% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 59.6% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 39.6% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 62.7% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 41.1% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC 43.3 / Hardenberg 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AFC vs Hardenberg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.