Spakenburg vs Barendrecht
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 15:00 CET
WDLWL
DDWWLThe score model made a Spakenburg win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 80%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spakenburg 2.82 – 1.44 Barendrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spakenburg win | 66.3% | 65.2% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 16.3% | 18.2% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Barendrecht win | 17.4% | 16.6% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.7% | 72.5% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61.4% | 53.1% | +8.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 71.6% | 65.9% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.8% | 50.8% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spakenburg 43 / Barendrecht 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.