RKAV Volendam vs Hoek
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 14:30 CET
DDLLW
DDLWLThe score model made a Hoek win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RKAV Volendam 1.22 – 1.86 Hoek.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKAV Volendam win | 25.2% | 31.4% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 24.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Hoek win | 52.4% | 44.3% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 63.1% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 43.4% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 65.2% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 43.6% | -14.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RKAV Volendam 35.2 / Hoek 24.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.