Rijnsburgse Boys vs AFC
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 14:30 CET
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DWLLWThe score model made a Rijnsburgse Boys win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rijnsburgse Boys 1.97 – 1.43 AFC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rijnsburgse Boys win | 50.1% | 48.0% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 23.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| AFC win | 28.2% | 28.7% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | 65.3% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.2% | 45.0% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | 65.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.2% | 45.4% | +6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rijnsburgse Boys 43.1 / AFC 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.