Katwijk vs Jong Almere City
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 15:00 CET
DLWLL
LDLWWThe score model made a Katwijk win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Katwijk 1.96 – 1.77 Jong Almere City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katwijk win | 43.1% | 42.3% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 22.8% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Jong Almere City win | 35.6% | 34.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | 65.5% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.2% | 44.7% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 71.2% | 67.2% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.5% | 44.9% | +5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Katwijk 43.1 / Jong Almere City 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.