HFC vs Jong Sparta Rotterdam
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 14:00 CET
DLDLL
DDWLLThe score model made an HFC win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HFC 1.63 – 1.61 Jong Sparta Rotterdam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFC win | 38.8% | 37.1% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 24.5% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Jong Sparta Rotterdam win | 38.1% | 38.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 65.6% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.5% | 46.1% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | 67.5% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.2% | 45.6% | -2.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HFC 43.1 / Jong Sparta Rotterdam 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.