HFC vs Jong Sparta Rotterdam
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 14:00 CET
LWLLW
DWWWLThe score model makes an HFC win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HFC 1.62 – 1.61 Jong Sparta Rotterdam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| HFC win | 38.8% | — | — |
| Draw | 23.1% | — | — |
| Jong Sparta Rotterdam win | 38.1% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HFC 43.6 / Jong Sparta Rotterdam 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.