Hardenberg vs De Treffers
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 14:30 CET
DWWWW
WDWWDThe score model makes a De Treffers win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hardenberg 1.41 – 1.47 De Treffers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardenberg win | 36.3% | — | — |
| Draw | 24.6% | — | — |
| De Treffers win | 39.1% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hardenberg 43.6 / De Treffers 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.