GVVV vs Quick Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 14:30 CET
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WLWWWThe score model made a Quick Boys win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GVVV 1.14 – 2.30 Quick Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVVV win | 17.7% | 20.5% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.8% | 21.8% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Quick Boys win | 63.5% | 57.7% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 63.9% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.2% | 43.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 60.8% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.3% | 43.7% | -0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: GVVV 40.5 / Quick Boys 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.