Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-14 · 20:00 CET
WWLLL
LLDLWThe score model made a Jong Utrecht win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 6:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.51 – 1.39 Jong Ajax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht win | 40.6% | 41.8% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 23.9% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Jong Ajax win | 35.2% | 34.2% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 68.4% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.9% | 48.1% | -15.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 68.9% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 46.5% | -9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Utrecht 49.9 / Jong Ajax 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.