FC Volendam vs Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-13 · 16:45 CET
LWLWD
WLDWWThe score model made an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 78%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Volendam 2.85 – 1.30 Den Bosch.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam win | 69.7% | 54.7% | +15.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.4% | 21.7% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Den Bosch win | 14.9% | 23.6% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.3% | 72.9% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59.5% | 53.6% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.3% | 70.4% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.3% | 50.1% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Volendam 17.3 / Den Bosch 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Volendam vs Den Bosch in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.