Roda vs Vitesse
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-12 · 16:30 CET
WDWLD
WLDLWThe score model made a Roda win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Roda 1.56 – 1.27 Vitesse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda win | 44.2% | 43.0% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.7% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Vitesse win | 31.4% | 31.3% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 58.8% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 38.0% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 62.0% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 39.7% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Roda 48.7 / Vitesse 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Roda vs Vitesse in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.