Venlo vs Oss
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
WLWWD
WLWWLThe score model made a Venlo win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Venlo 1.65 – 1.05 Oss.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venlo win | 51.5% | 51.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 23.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Oss win | 24.4% | 24.6% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 65.6% | -15.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 45.9% | -17.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 65.5% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 45.6% | -22.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Venlo 48.1 / Oss 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.