NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
WWDWW
DWWLLThe score model made an NAC Breda win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: NAC Breda 2.23 – 1.19 Jong Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 61.0% | 72.5% | -11.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.4% | 16.3% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Jong Utrecht win | 19.6% | 11.2% | +8.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | 70.0% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.7% | 50.1% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | 58.3% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 48.3% | -7.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: NAC Breda 13.3 / Jong Utrecht 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.