Maastricht vs Almere City
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
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WWLWWThe score model made an Almere City win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maastricht 1.35 – 1.88 Almere City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maastricht win | 27.8% | 33.5% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 25.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Almere City win | 50.1% | 40.8% | +9.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 64.8% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.5% | 44.6% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 67.0% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 45.2% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maastricht 48.1 / Almere City 35.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.