FC Emmen vs De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
LLWDW
WLWDWThe score model made an FC Emmen win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Emmen 1.85 – 1.82 De Graafschap.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 39.9% | 55.9% | -16.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.4% | 21.9% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| De Graafschap win | 38.7% | 22.2% | +16.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.0% | 70.5% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.1% | 50.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 70.5% | 67.8% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.4% | 49.2% | +0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Emmen 45.7 / De Graafschap 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.