Eindhoven FC vs Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
WLDLL
LLWDLThe score model made an Eindhoven FC win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eindhoven FC 1.52 – 1.49 Dordrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eindhoven FC win | 38.6% | 40.7% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Dordrecht win | 37.6% | 33.6% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 63.8% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% | 43.9% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 66.0% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 43.5% | -4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eindhoven FC 48.1 / Dordrecht 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.