Jong Utrecht vs Eindhoven FC
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-07 · 20:00 CET
DWWLL
WWLDLThe score model made an Eindhoven FC win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.49 – 1.50 Eindhoven FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht win | 37.8% | 40.8% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.8% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Eindhoven FC win | 38.4% | 33.3% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 60.9% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.1% | 40.8% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 63.7% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 43.7% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Utrecht 48.7 / Eindhoven FC 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.