Maastricht vs Roda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-06 · 16:45 CET
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WDWLDThe score model made a Roda win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maastricht 1.27 – 1.38 Roda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maastricht win | 34.7% | 30.7% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.8% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Roda win | 40.0% | 42.5% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 56.5% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 36.0% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 60.1% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 38.5% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maastricht 47.6 / Roda 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.