Waalwijk vs NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-04 · 20:00 CET
WWLDL
LWWDWThe score model made a Waalwijk win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 4:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waalwijk 2.05 – 1.48 NAC Breda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 51.0% | 33.2% | +17.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 25.2% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| NAC Breda win | 28.0% | 41.6% | -13.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 63.2% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.1% | 42.6% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | 64.9% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 42.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waalwijk 29.7 / NAC Breda 12.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.