Helmond vs Venlo
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-04 · 20:00 CET
WLLDL
WWLWWThe score model made a Helmond win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 4:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Helmond 1.30 – 1.29 Venlo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond win | 37.4% | 35.9% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.9% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Venlo win | 36.7% | 37.2% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 58.7% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 38.1% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 62.5% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 40.7% | -12.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Helmond 47.8 / Venlo 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.