FC Emmen vs FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-04 · 20:00 CET
LLWDW
WLWLWThe score model made an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 73%). It finished 5:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Emmen 1.46 – 2.35 FC Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 23.4% | 40.2% | -16.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.1% | 24.8% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| FC Volendam win | 57.5% | 34.9% | +22.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.3% | 67.0% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.9% | 47.3% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 69.4% | 68.5% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 56.0% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Emmen 45.3 / FC Volendam 16.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.