BFC Daugavpils vs RFS
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-09-13 · 13:00 CET
LDLDW
DWDWWThe score model made an RFS win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: BFC Daugavpils 0.87 – 2.10 RFS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils win | 14.4% | 9.9% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.1% | 17.1% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| RFS win | 65.6% | 73.0% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | 59.1% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 38.8% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 46.6% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 41.4% | -12.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: BFC Daugavpils 51.9 / RFS 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open BFC Daugavpils vs RFS in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.