The season in numbers
Even the best blind strategy (under 2.5 goals) lost this season. The bookmaker margin is undefeated.
Tukums 2000 produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.5' on average.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 1 OctWe simulate the remaining Virsliga schedule 10,000 times a day. RFS win the 2026 title in 79% of them, projecting ~88 points; Riga FC are next at 21%. At the other end, Ogre United finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 74 | 88 | 85–92 | 79% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Riga FC | 73 | 85 | 82–88 | 21% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Auda | 61 | 70 | 66–74 | — | >99% | — |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 43 | 52 | 48–55 | — | 86% | — |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 39 | 47 | 43–51 | — | 14% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Grobina | 26 | 30 | 27–33 | — | — | 99% |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 24 | 28 | 25–31 | — | — | 99% |
| 10 | Ogre United | 18 | 22 | 19–25 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 26 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/latvia/virsliga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Virsliga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/latvia/virsliga">Virsliga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Virsliga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 74 | 69.4 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | Riga FC | 73 | 72.0 | +1.0 | |
| 3 | Auda | 61 | 50.6 | +10.4 | outperformed expectations |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 43 | 46.2 | -3.2 | |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 39 | 37.5 | +1.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Grobina | 26 | 31.8 | -5.8 | |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 24 | 32.7 | -8.7 | underperformed expectations |
| 10 | Ogre United | 18 | 22.4 | -4.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+