Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, under 2.5 goals, returned −1.5% at market prices across 154 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Tukums 2000 produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Super Nova – Grobina2026-10-10 13:00Under 2.5Model 64.2%Implied 55.2%▲ +9.0%- FK Liepaja – Auda2026-10-12 15:00Under 2.5Model 56.7%Implied 49.0%▲ +7.7%
- Tukums 2000 – Riga FC2026-10-10 11:00FT O3.5Model 54.3%Implied 50.8%▲ +3.5%
- Ogre United – BFC Daugavpils2026-10-11 11:00Under 1.5 HTModel 68.9%Implied 67.1%▲ +1.8%
- RFS – Jelgava2026-10-11 13:00Home winModel 84.1%Implied 83.3%▲ +0.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Super Nova– Grobina | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 64.2% | 55.2% | ▲ +9.0% | 1.81 |
| 2 |  FK Liepaja– Auda | 2026-10-12 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 49.0% | ▲ +7.7% | 2.04 |
| 3 |  Tukums 2000– Riga FC | 2026-10-10 | 11:00 | FT O3.5 | 54.3% | 50.8% | ▲ +3.5% | 1.97 |
| 4 |  Ogre United– BFC Daugavpils | 2026-10-11 | 11:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 68.9% | 67.1% | ▲ +1.8% | 1.49 |
| 5 |  RFS– Jelgava | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Home win | 84.1% | 83.3% | ▲ +0.7% | 1.20 |
Add Virsliga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Virsliga schedule 10,000 times a day. RFS win the 2026 title in 79% of them, projecting ~88 points; Riga FC are next at 21%. At the other end, Ogre United finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 74 | 88 | 85–92 | 79% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Riga FC | 73 | 85 | 82–88 | 21% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Auda | 61 | 70 | 66–74 | — | >99% | — |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 43 | 52 | 48–56 | — | 87% | — |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 39 | 47 | 43–51 | — | 13% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Grobina | 26 | 30 | 27–33 | — | — | 99% |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 24 | 27 | 24–30 | — | — | >99% |
| 10 | Ogre United | 18 | 22 | 19–25 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 26 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Virsliga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 74 | 69.2 | +4.8 | |
| 2 | Riga FC | 73 | 71.9 | +1.1 | |
| 3 | Auda | 61 | 50.6 | +10.4 | outperformed expectations |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 43 | 46.2 | -3.2 | |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 39 | 37.6 | +1.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Grobina | 26 | 31.9 | -5.9 | |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 24 | 32.7 | -8.7 | underperformed expectations |
| 10 | Ogre United | 18 | 22.5 | -4.5 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+