Virsligahub →Virsliga 2026 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Auda | 24 | 46 | 38.8 | +7.2Outperforming ++ | 3 | +0.7 | +6.5 | 0:1 vs RFS (+2.5) | 2:3 vs BFC Daugavpils (-2.0) |
2 | RFS | 25 | 65 | 58.8 | +6.2Outperforming ++ | 2 | -0.1 | +6.3 | 0:1 vs FK Liepaja (+1.0) | 0:1 vs Auda (-2.3) |
3 | Riga FC | 25 | 64 | 59.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 1 | +3.7 | +1.3 | 2:1 vs RFS (+1.5) | 2:1 vs FK Liepaja (-2.1) |
4 | BFC Daugavpils | 26 | 36 | 32.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 5 | +5.4 | -1.8 | 2:3 vs Auda (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Super Nova (-1.7) |
5 | Super Nova | 24 | 27 | 25.0 | +2.0Outperforming | 9 | -5.1 | +7.1 | 0:1 vs BFC Daugavpils (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Ogre United (-2.0) |
6 | Jelgava | 26 | 25 | 28.1 | -3.1Underperforming | 6 | -2.5 | -0.6 | 1:5 vs Super Nova (+1.7) | 0:2 vs Ogre United (-2.0) |
7 | Ogre United | 25 | 14 | 17.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 10 | -2.4 | -1.0 | 0:2 vs Jelgava (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Super Nova (-1.1) |
8 | FK Liepaja | 25 | 34 | 38.8 | -4.8Underperforming | 4 | +2.1 | -6.8 | 2:1 vs Riga FC (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Grobina (-1.9) |
9 | Grobina | 26 | 21 | 26.1 | -5.1Underperforming −− | 8 | -2.7 | -2.4 | 1:0 vs FK Liepaja (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Super Nova (-1.4) |
10 | Tukums 2000 | 26 | 20 | 26.4 | -6.4Underperforming −− | 7 | +2.1 | -8.5 | 2:1 vs Auda (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Super Nova (-1.6) |