Grobina vs Jelgava
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-09-12 · 13:00 CET
LDDLW
WLDLLThe score model made a Jelgava win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grobina 1.03 – 1.15 Jelgava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grobina win | 32.5% | 38.5% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.8% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Jelgava win | 38.1% | 32.7% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 48.0% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.7% | 27.7% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | 53.6% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 33.5% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grobina 49.4 / Jelgava 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Grobina vs Jelgava in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.