Riga FC vs Auda
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-09-11 · 17:00 CET
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WDWDWThe score model made a Riga FC win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Riga FC 2.13 – 0.80 Auda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga FC win | 68.0% | 69.1% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.2% | 18.9% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Auda win | 12.8% | 12.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 62.0% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 41.0% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 53.0% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 42.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Riga FC 51.2 / Auda 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.