Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-09-07 · 18:00 CET
DDWWW
LDLDWThe score model made a Riga FC win the most likely outcome at 80%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Riga FC 2.71 – 0.69 BFC Daugavpils.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga FC win | 79.9% | 76.1% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 13.1% | 14.7% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| BFC Daugavpils win | 7.0% | 9.2% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 68.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 48.8% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 51.6% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 47.4% | -13.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Riga FC 50.7 / BFC Daugavpils 51.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.