Auda vs Grobina
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-09-06 · 17:00 CET
DWDWD
WLDDLThe score model made an Auda win the most likely outcome at 68%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auda 1.88 – 0.59 Grobina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auda win | 68.3% | 66.3% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 20.3% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Grobina win | 10.8% | 13.4% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 57.0% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 36.3% | -12.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.9% | 50.4% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 39.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Auda 50.8 / Grobina 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.