V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-12 · 12:00 CET
LWDDL
LLLWWThe score model made a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: V-Varen Nagasaki 1.41 – 1.75 Nagoya Grampus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 32.5% | 27.0% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.7% | 25.7% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Nagoya Grampus win | 46.8% | 47.3% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 56.6% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.9% | 35.9% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | 59.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 38.2% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: V-Varen Nagasaki 16.7 / Nagoya Grampus 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.