Mito vs Kawasaki Frontale
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-12 · 11:00 CET
DLLLL
WWDLWThe score model made a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mito 1.88 – 2.10 Kawasaki Frontale.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mito win | 36.3% | 29.4% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.9% | 26.4% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 44.8% | 44.2% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.9% | 56.4% | +19.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.3% | 35.7% | +20.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 73.5% | 59.6% | +13.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 54.0% | 37.9% | +16.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mito 11.7 / Kawasaki Frontale 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mito vs Kawasaki Frontale in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.